From the Foreign Policy Morning Brief:

  • Pakistan accused India of firing shells across the Line of Control, the disputed border in Kashmir, amid heightened tensions between the two countries along the frontier.

while there has been debate about the Spread of Nuclear Weapons there should be no doubt that border clashes between states each armed with several hundred nuclear weapons are dangerous situations. I tend to focus on the  US/Russian dyad because of the size of their arsenals and launch postures of their ICBM’s – but– India/Pakistan may be the most dangerous relationship in the world when it comes to the likelihood that deterrence will fail. Just because a nuclear exchange would probably be disastrous for both countries* does not mean that a conflict could not spiral out of control. Instances of shelling across the border are the kinds of things that could precipitate such a conflict.

* see water

357_tibet.w.chi.riversindia pakistan water2

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